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For information about attending a Salisbury Cafe Scientifique event, see the Attending an Event section; there is also more general information in the Frequently Asked Questions section and help on making the most of this calendar in the Calendar Help section. If you fancy a night of science outside but close to Salisbury, there is also this filtered list of nearby events.
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Chair: Mark BirkinMeeting Host: WIll Taylor
Timetable
1:30 – 1:35 Introduction and overview of Urban Analytics. Mark Birkin1:35 – 1:45 Modelling journeys to work & business premises, Ying Jin
1:45 – 1.55 Spatial cooperation during a recurring disease outbreak, James Burridge1:55 – 2-05 Streetspace allocation analysis in London, Nicolas Palominos
2:05 – 2.15 Predictive modelling of social distancing and compromised distancing in determining railway passenger boarding rates and flows, David Fletcher 2:15 – 2:30 Discussion2-30 to 2-55 Break
2-55-3-00 Introduction to the Small Spaces Task, Mike BattyLonger Talks (~15 mins)
3-00 – 3.15 Fire Safety Centre/Centre for Numerical Modelling and Process Analysis, University of Greenwich, Ed Galea,
3-15 – 3-30 Network Rail, Nigel Best et al.,3- 30-3-45 Sainsbury’s, Dave Romano-Critchley et al.,3-45 – 4-00 Q and A 15 minutes with comfort breakLightening Talks (~10 mins)
4-00-4-10 CASA-UCL/Tesco, Fabian Ying,
4-10-4-20 PWC AI Team, Technology & Investment Group, Artem Parakhine/ Shabnam Rashtchi
4-20-4-30 CEGE, UCL, Thorsten Stoesser,
4-30-4-40 Martin Centre, U Cambridge, Ronita Bardhan
4-40 – 5pm Q and A for any topic of the small spaces task and any other in the afternoon
Taking its name from the Iñupiaq phrase for “ice bridge” the Ikaaġvik Sikukun project has successfully built bridges between a diverse team of scientists and Indigenous Knowledge-holders to study the changing sea-ice environment of Kotzebue Sound, Alaska. We have broken new ground by co-producing our hypotheses in partnership with an Indigenous Elder advisory council to develop research questions that cut across disciplinary boundaries and address the needs of both the local and scientific communities. To share our story broadly and in a way that respects the oral traditions of Indigenous Knowledge, our team also includes an ethnographic film-maker who has been documenting each step of our unique research journey. Over the past three years, with continued guidance from our advisory council, we have designed and carried out a research plan to observe the sea ice and marine mammals in Kotzebue Sound and how these come together as habitat and hunting grounds. Using satellite data, unmanned aerial systems (UAS), oceanographic moorings and on-ice measurements we have witnessed two exceptional years (2018 and 2019) with unprecedentedly low sea ice extent and the earliest start of bearded seal (Erignathus barbatus) hunting in recent memory – contributing to a broader trend towards shorter spring hunting seasons, which have been recorded in Kotzebue since 2003. We also observed widespread flooding of the landfast ice, possibly caused by relatively high snowfall on top of thin ice, as well as the detachment and fragmentation of landfast ice recently occupied by ringed seal (Phoca hispida) pups, adults, and their lairs. Having integrated Indigenous Knowledge throughout our approach, we are now in a unique position to turn these interrelated observations into answers to our research questions. Join the diverse Ikaaġvik Sikukun team as I share an overview of our research approach and preliminary results including observations of the sea ice heat budget that undergoes a rapid change during Spring melt and breakup, as well as the profound impact of sea ice change on the traditional use of these regions by local indigenous Iñupiaq populations.
Team: Andrew R. Mahoney, Sarah Betcher, Donna Hauser, Ajit Subramaniam, Alex Whiting, John Goodwin, Cyrus Harris, Robert Schaeffer, Ross Schaeffer, Nathan Laxague, Jessica Lindsay, Carson Witte
This lecture will be presented as a virtual talk on Google Meet, us the following link to access the talk: “meet.google.com/epi-proa-bxu”:URL
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Chair: Peter Challenor
Chair: Peter Challenor
Chair: Peter Challenor
Chair: Peter Challenor
Uncertainty estimation is important for ensuring safety and robustness of AI systems. Ensembles of models yield improvements in system performance as well as principled and interpretable uncertainty estimates. However, ensemble-based uncertainty estimation comes at a computational and memory cost which may be prohibitive for many applications. This has limited both practical application and the scale of problems which are examined in research. In this talk we examine pushing the scale-limit of ensemble-based uncertainty estimation in two ways. Firstly, we introduce the task of “Ensemble Distribution Distillation”. Here, the goal is to distill an ensemble into a single model such that it emulates the ensemble, retaining both its improved predictive performance and interpretable uncertainty estimates. Secondly, we investigate principled ensemble-based uncertainty estimation for autoregressive structured prediction tasks, such as machine translation and speech recognition, an area which has received limited attention so far. Through the lens of these two scale-limits we pose possible directions of future research.
Zoom meeting: https://yandex.zoom.us/j/93618382511?pwd=cHJ0MkhZWXhobzZteG9YTUVJV25iUT09
Part I: Rapid supply of warm Atlantic waters below Greenland’s largest glacier tongue
Mass loss from the Greenland ice sheet has increased over the past two decades, currently accounting for 25% of global sea level rise. This is due to increased surface melt driven by atmospheric warming and the retreat and acceleration of marine terminating glaciers forced by oceanic heat transport. We use ship-based profiles, bathymetric data and moored time series from 2016 to 2017 of temperature, salinity and water velocity collected in front of the floating tongue of the 79 North Glacier in Northeast Greenland. These observations indicate that a year-round bottom-intensified inflow of warm Atlantic Water through a narrow channel is constrained by a sill. The associated heat transport leads to a mean melt rate of 10.4 ± 3.1 m yr–1 on the bottom of the floating glacier tongue. We conclude that near-glacier, sill-controlled ocean heat transport plays a crucial role for glacier stability.
Part II: Trapped in the Arctic ice – First results from the MOSAiC expedition (leg 3)
MOSAiC (Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate) aims at a breakthrough in understanding the Arctic climate system and in its representation in global climate models. The backbone of MOSAiC is the year-round operation of RV Polarstern, drifting since October 2019 with the sea ice across the central Arctic. A distributed regional network of observational sites has been set up on the sea ice in an area of up to ~40 km distance from RV Polarstern. Team OCEAN aims at a better understanding of ocean boundary-layer mixing processes and heat fluxes from the warm Atlantic water across the halocline. On leg 3, all teams carried out measurements during the transition from 24-hours darkness to 24-hours light. Furthermore, we sampled in newly formed leads and ridges, during the passage of storms, and captured the onset of the melting season – under challenging work conditions.
The Earth is a giant sponge. This is particularly noticeable when underground spaces are constructed in places with stiff clay, like London and Cambridge. When a large basement is excavated in stiff clay, the removal of soil overburden causes the remaining soil to swell slowly and push the new basement upwards, in a phenomenon known as “long-term heave”. The underlying stress-strain relationships are highly non-linear and these movements often continue for many years after the end of construction, causing significant conservatism in design. This seminar will present a series of physical experiments of basement heave that used the technique of geotechnical centrifuge modelling to reduce the size of the model and speed up the process of heave while preserving the mechanisms of deformation. The experimental results will be compared with finite element simulations of the same prototypes and with 21 years of monitoring data from a site in London, to discern the mechanisms of heave and propose improvements to the methods of basement structure design.
Venue: Google Meet – https://meet.google.com/tdf-zivs-chk
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Slender structures are subject to various localised instabilities: necking of bars under traction, bulging of cylindrical party balloons, beading in cylinders made up of soft gels, or folding of tape-springs. In all these examples, distinct states of deformation may coexist and classical one-dimensional (1D) models predict singular solutions. In particular, classical 1D models fail to describe interfaces or finite size effects. The most common remedy is to use full structural models based on 3D finite elasticity or nonlinear shell/membrane equations. However, this is computationally costly and often impracticable: simpler 1D regularised models depending on the strain and the strain gradient are therefore attractive.
There is a recent effort to rigorously establish 1D higher-order models for the analysis of localisation in slender structures. I will introduce a systematic method to derive such models by a formal expansion, starting from a variety of full structural models for slender elastic structures. The expansion is performed near a finitely pre-strained state and therefore retains all sources of nonlinearity, coming from the geometry and the constitutive law. I will illustrate the method in the case of bulging and beading, and demonstrate its accuracy by comparing solutions of the 1D gradient model with solutions of the original structural model.
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